Today, we have a YNH Exclusive on the latest French elections-- here's a deep dive into it by Mihir Gupta and Armaan Dhawan.
Contents:
The finishing touches of the elections for the lower house of the French parliament took place this Sunday, and it was something-- a huge surprise for most of the world. Incumbent President Emmanuel Macron proved very unpopular as his coalition, the centrist Ensemble, did much worse than they hoped, receiving only 159 seats. This is compared with the 289 seats to form a majority government.
In last month's European parliamentary elections, the National Rally (Marine Le-Pen's far-right party) crushed his party, motivating Macron to call a surprise parliamentary election three years ahead of the actual election in 2027. He said this was to show the people who were in the lead and clear up any confusion, but it ended up doing the opposite.
You might see two election dates in the news: June 30 and July 7. This is because France has an unusual two-round election system. The first one is sort of an elimination round. Candidates who receive at least 12.5% of the vote proceed to the second round, where the final decision is made. In essence, this election system is quite like an instant runoff system, though France officially has a first-past-the-post/plurality system. This system gives candidates seats in the first and second rounds and then adds them up.
In the first round, the RN took the lead, marking a massive surprise for the population. With Macron's centrist party all the way down in third and France's leftist party, the New Popular Front (NFP), in second, worries erupted for Macron-- the far-right party was extremely close to a win. They were expected to take the election, and if not the majority, then more seats than the other groups. However, in the second round, the NFP took the lead, and Macron came in second. Out of 577 seats, the NFP won the most, with 182, while Macron's coalition came in second with 163 and the RN party, despite being the initial favorites, came in third with 143. However, all three coalitions fell short of the 289-seat requirement to take a majority, throwing the parliament into chaos.
Now, the NFP, a group that didn't even exist one month ago, is now in the lead, and they will choose the next Prime Minister. The whole point of forming the organization was to stop far-right coalitions, and they succeeded this year. However, they may not stay united for long. The NFP is actually a bloc made up of multiple different parties with similar leftist views, and they tend to disagree on many major issues. This could possibly result in the bloc disbanding in the near future if they are forced to make big decisions. In addition, in order to pass laws, the NFP will need to alliance with Macron's Ensemble, and the two have very different views.
The next step will be to elect a new prime minister, as the incumbent PM, Gabriel Attal, has resigned. He is staying in office until the next one is elected, but it will be a confusing decision. Macron will need to elect a new prime minister from the coalition with the most votes, which is the NFP. The issue is that France does not know which of the various parties within the NFP that they will pick a prime minister from.
Now you know why the media is churning out articles with headlines like "Why the French election result was such a surprise" (The Washington Post) and "French election: What the [heck] is going on?" (Politico).
This election was shocking, and it will be interesting to see what comes next for the French government and what policies it will exhibit.
Fact of the Day (Facts.net): Cows have best friends, and they tend to experience lower stress levels when they are together.
Quote of the Day (Gracious Quotes): What people have the capacity to choose, they have the ability to change. (Madeline Albright)
Word of the Day (Merriam-Webster): Ungainly (adj) - Ungainly usually describes someone or something moving in an awkward or clumsy way, or the awkward, clumsy movements themselves. It can also describe an object that is difficult to handle (especially because of being large or heavy), or someone or something that has an awkward appearance.
In a Sentence: While seals are ungainly on land, they are beautifully agile swimmers.
That is so interesting that cows also have best friends just like us. Thank you for teaching me that.
So good. Unbelievable